Socialist leader Francois Hollande is likely to be the next president of France, beating incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy. That’s bad for business, and worse for the French economy.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy seems destined to be the next electoral casualty of the euro-zone sovereign-debt crisis. Sarkozy is deeply unpopular at home, but his expected defeat in this year’s presidential elections could be a setback for France.
The likely victor, François Hollande, is a socialist whose policies would create uncertainty in the short term and foment further economic stagnation in the longer run. Like much of the euro zone, France is plagued by diminishing competitiveness, high unemployment, and excessive government spending. Hollande has proposed raising the state’s tab, which could worsen the other problems and punish business.
Sarkozy and Hollande will lead in the first round of voting on April 22, but neither is likely to garner enough votes to declare an outright victory. All polls point to a win for Hollande in the May 6 runoff, but the French have pulled surprises in the past.
Sarkozy, 57, was elected president in 2007, and is paying the price for failing to deliver on his campaign promises amid the worst financial downturn in Europe since World War II. He has earned plaudits for persuading Germany, Europe’s largest economy, to take a softer approach to the euro-zone crisis, but domestic issues matter more to French voters. France is flirting with economic recession, and in January was stripped of its prized triple-A credit rating by Standard & Poor’s.
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